A new poll from Axios finds that Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2016 election have shrunk by nearly half in the last month.
The latest poll from YouGov, which is the only national poll that includes an independent panel of pollsters, found that the presumptive GOP nominee is at 47% in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, down from 50% a month ago.
This means that Trump is down by more than 10 percentage points from the month before, and down by nearly 7 percentage points in the average of five national polls.
The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, was conducted June 16-21 among 825 likely voters.
YouGov’s average of the national polls has Trump at 49.7%, down from 49.6% a week ago, and the average for FiveThirtyEight has Trump down by 5.5 points.
This is the first time in recent memory that a presidential candidate has seen a 10 point swing from one national poll to another.
A total of 17% of respondents said they were still undecided, while just 5% said they would definitely vote for Trump, according to the poll.
The poll found that 52% of voters said that Trump was dishonest and that he was “extremely dishonest.”
Another 15% said that he had a plan that was not on the ballot and 28% said he had an honest plan.
“His biggest problem is that he has been accused of making statements that are untrue and he’s tried to use that to get votes,” said YouGov political director Robert Costa.
“But the truth is that people aren’t going to vote for a person who says things like, ‘I’m going to build a wall’ or ‘I’ll be a strong leader.'”
This comes just days after a report that Trump’s campaign had a secret video recording of him making racially charged remarks.